AI - a friend, not a foe

Disruptions

5000 years ago, 50 humans set out with sacks of grain on their back, transporting them from farm to godowns. Some years later, with the discovery of wheel, the same work could be done by 5 people. The 45 who lost the job of transportation could now work in different sectors like cutting wood for the wheel, making the wheel, making the carts, etc. 300 years ago, when hundreds protested against the use of spindle as it took away their livelihood, the opportunities arose in the factories to make needles for the spindles.

30 years ago, many rose to protest against the use of computers, fearing that it would render them jobless, children of those protesters then used the same computers to bring in the Information Technology Revolution.

30 months ago, a young researcher demonstrated how Artificial Intelligence could be used to detect and analyse sugarcane cultivation. Though they may reduce human interventions in surveying, Such technologies could help set in the chain of events from farm to fork - harvest, agro-processing, packaging, logistics, and employ many in these activities. 30 days ago, AI helped Amazon and Flipkart plan for their sales in September, and boost the incomes of many small sellers and manufacturers.

30 minutes ago, Google Assistant informed me about the traffic on my way and suggested me a less congested road. Thus I could reach the examination venue on time.

Artificial Intelligence refers to the intelligence that computers use,  without being explicitly programmed, to perform cognitive tasks like perceiving, learning, thinking, decision making and relearning. They gain this intelligence through the use of neural networks (that mimic how the human brain works) to analyse data and make predictions.

Data creates intelligence

With persistent astronomical and geographical observations, our predecessors could accurately predict the weather. They gained this intelligence by remembering various factors and analysing them.

Now, mathematical models created on the basis of large quantities of data is able to predict many things like weather, the presence of tumours, etc.

The famous image of the Black Hole was also a result of Artificial Intelligence.

Rise of AI

During World War 2, the Germans devised a cryptographic code that could take hundreds of years for human to decode. When Alan Turing designed a computing system that could do the same task in hours, the intelligence of his creation surprised human intelligence. Since then, the field of Artificial Intelligence has grown almost according to Moore’s law. Each year, as computing power doubled and storage costs reduced, machines could learn more data in lesser time and grow more intelligent. Recognising the omnipresence of AI among humans, Saudi Arabia recognised an AI enabled bot Sophia as its citizen.

Threats to jobs

Now as a robot has been equated to a human citizen, the fear of machines replacing humans started spread across economies. In 2018, the World Economic Forum listed the following skills as Top 10 skills to succeed

1. Complex problem solving
2. Critical Thinking
3. Creativity
4. People management
5. Coordinating with others
6. Emotional Intelligence
7. Judgement and decision making
8. Service orientation
9. Negotiation
10. Cognitive flexibility

An AI system can only solve mathematical problems, the supreme ability to convert a problem into a mathematical problem is still in the human domain exclusively. Further, while they can aid, the ability of a bot to be creative, and have emotional intelligence is questionable. With the rise of Information Technology industry, as the number of software developers in developing countries grew, non-development tasks like testing, customer support etc were outsourced to developing countries for their cheaper labour. As the workforce in the developing countries developed, these tasks that were now below their capabilities, are being outsourced to machines and the workforce is better utilized in technical tasks of development and innovation. Thus the developed workforce is not underemployed in simpler tasks. While AI and automation will be able to do tasks normally done by humans, humans will be freed up to do complex tasks that only human intelligence can comprehend.

Opportunities

Art and Culture

Opportunities in the field of image processing, helped by deeper understanding of ancient art and culture helps identify lost or stolen art pieces.

Climate studies

AI enabled systems have helped predict many natural phenomena like cyclones, tsunamis, floods and has generated employment in the field of disaster management and mitigation besides prevention of economic losses due to disasters 

Legislation

Data driven and AI enabled insights will help the Parliament formulate better and proactive policies. This can create more jobs in the execution part of the policy.

E-governance

e-governance has simplified many governance procedures and has saved valuable time of citizens who can then devote more time towards work

Defence

The Ministry of Defence is collaborating with some Start Ups to build AI enabled systems to defend the country.

Space

More than 600 private firms partnered with ISRO in the Chandrayaan 2 mission. With increasing openness of the erstwhile gated organisation, and potential of the use of AI in remote sensing, launching, etc new avenues will open up for technocrats

Finance

Trained professionals can deploy AI systems on the Public Credit Registry and make smarter funding decisions

Health

AI is already helping in the detection of many cancers. Similar systems will help leverage the effectiveness of primary and secondary healthcare and create jobs in the healthcare sectors.

Data creation

Digitalisation

Portals like Digitalize India are paying volunteers to convert scanned documents into editable form

Statistics and information from those government records then become the raw materials for the AI system

Feature extraction

While machines can make decisions, they need good quality data.

Workers trained identify features like crops, tumours, manufacturing defects in images are feeding data to make systems more intelligent 

Model refinement/ground truthing

Every AI system needs human verification to reduce errors. Thus a huge workforce will be required to test and refine the systems.

Digital infrastructure 

New opportunities in the fields of electronics, system maintenance, clean energy production, programming, etc will employ thousands.

Travel and logistics

AI is being used to predict customer behaviour. This has boosted the e-commerce sector and the benefits have trickled down to related sectors of manufacturing, packaging, logistics, customer care, etc.

Spillovers

The increasing life span, higher disposable income, and increase in leisure time when AI partakes human tasks, opportunities in the fields of entertainment, sports, personal care, childcare, eldercare, retirement homes, etc would increase. Jobs would transform from machine like to human like.

India’s strengths

1. 26 lakh Science Technology Engineering Mathematics (STEM) graduates
2. Large population creates a large dataset that fuels machine learning
3. With its expertise in Information Technology, low costs of data storage and lowest cost of internet, India has the major ingredients to rule the AI Revolution 

Policies to support

1. National Electronics Policy to create the physical infrastructure of electronic components, processors, etc;
2. National Software Policy to create robust software’s to support the AI systems
3. National AI Strategy to lay the roadmap for the AI Revolution 
4. Atal Tinkering Labs to encourage young minds to tinker with new technologies 
5. Start Up India scheme to motivate and handhold start ups to innovate and create good AI based products

Requirements

1. Early adoption of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in schools
2. Shift from traditional syllabus to industry-oriented syllabus in STEM 
3. Curation of content on NPTEL and SWAYAM portals to enable students to learn without barriers and create a AI ready workforce 
4. Robust systems to ensure cyber security 
5. Stringent privacy and data protection mechanisms
6. Ethical considerations arising due to temporary job losses
7. Consideration of a Universal Basic Income during the transitory period

Impacts

With AI and automation sharing the work load of humans, people will have more time for personal and family life and lead to better social cohesion Lesser work days will allow for holistic development of humans. The Marxian utopian world where humans live leisurely can be realised to some extent.

The First Industrial Revolution made man work like a machine. The Fourth Industrial Revolution will make a machine work like a man. And then man will have the time and energy to be human again.

While Artificial Intelligence May cause temporary disruptions, we have to, if not by choice then by force, reskill and retrain the youth to reap the benefits of demographic dividend else the 45 year high unemployment rate will continue to rise. However this is a delicate path to tread. As Stephen Hawking has predicted that in hundred years, machines with AI will rule over humans, we need to ensure that their goals are aligned with ours.